Impact of Government Incentives on Electric Vehicle Adoption in Malaysia: A Forecasting Approach Using Govt Car Registration Data

Abstract

Electric vehicles (EVs) play a crucial role in combating climate change and reducing reliance on fossil fuels. However, Malaysia has struggled to accelerate EV adoption due to limited infrastructure and high initial costs. To address this, the Malaysian government introduced targeted incentives in 2022 to encourage EV uptake. This study evaluates the immediate and long-term effects of these incentives using an Interrupted Time Series (ITS) model and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression, analyzing vehicle registration data from 2019 to 2024. Over time, the incentives drove a sustained annual increase in EV registrations, demonstrating their long-term effectiveness. Consumer preferences shifted notably toward EVs, with brands like Tesla and BYD gaining significant market penetration, while hybrid petrol vehicles continued to grow steadily. By comparing these results with global trends, the study emphasizes the importance of robust policy frameworks, infrastructure investment, and consumer-focused incentives in sustaining EV adoption. The research concludes that the Malaysian government’s incentives successfully promoted EV adoption, but addressing infrastructure gaps and enhancing policy measures remain crucial for achieving the country’s sustainable mobility objectives.