Rollover Risk Probability Analysis for SUVs and MPVs in the ASEAN Market

Abstract

The number of single vehicle and rollover accidents in Indonesia has reached approximately 10,000 (7%) per year. Such an accident is typically followed by a large number of fatality, especially in the case for SUVs and MPVs. In the US, motor vehicle rollovers involving passenger cars, pickup trucks, and sport utility vehicles result in around 10,000 deaths and 27,000 serious injuries each year. Although single vehicle and rollover accident in Indonesia accounts for less than 10% tow- away crashes involving light vehicles, it has recorded almost one-third of light-vehicle occupant fatalities. The aim of this research is to develop a method to predict rollover probability. One of the key geometrical parameters to describe the rollover risk of vehicles is Static Stability Factor (SSF) which can be correlated with rollover probability using NHTSA statistical data. SSF is defined as the vehicle half-track width divided by its center of gravity height. Since information pertaining to the location of centre of gravity is not publicly available, a method was developed to predict it by using published technical data which were validated using NHTSA database. It was then used to predict rollover probability data for MPVs and SUVs in Indonesia. The method can be a tool for manufacturers, consumers, and regulators to reduce the number of rollover accidents which in turn may reduce occupant fatalities. The result can also be a means to assess the trend of rollover accident risk in the ASEAN region and will be beneficial for ASEAN NCAP in determining SUVs and MPVs safety rating.